SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - MARCH 18: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves in action during ... [+]
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards played his 65th game of the 2023-24 NBA season on Tuesday in a shorthanded 115-112 loss to the defending champion Denver Nuggets. In doing so, he clinched his eligibility for end-of-season accolades including MVP and the All-NBA teams.
The latter are the far bigger—and more realistic—concern for Edwards. The five-year max extension that he signed with the Timberwolves last summer contains language that would bump his starting salary up from 25% of the 2024-25 cap to 30% if he makes an All-NBA team this season.
Based on the current $141 million cap projection for next year, a 25% max would start at $35.25 million and would be worth $204.45 million in total, while a 30% max would begin at $42.3 million and would be $245.3 million in total. While making an All-NBA team would behoove Edwards' bank account, it would make team-building even more difficult for the Timberwolves moving forward.
Beyond Edwards' new extension kicking in, the Wolves also have Karl-Anthony Towns' four-year, 35% max extension and Jaden McDaniels' five-year, $131 million rookie extension beginning next season. Towns will be highest-paid player on the team next season at nearly $49.4 million, while frontcourt partner Rudy Gobert is on the books for $43.8 million. Throw in Naz Reid at nearly $14 million and Mike Conley and $10 million, and the Timberwolves are already flirting with second-apron territory.
The quintet of Gobert, Towns, Conley, Reid and McDaniels is projected to earn roughly $139.7 million next season. Again, the cap projection is $141 million. The luxury-tax line is projected to be $171.3 million, which Edwards' extension alone will push the Timberwolves past. From there, it's a question of which apron they end up exceeding.
If (when) the Timberwolves go over the second apron, they'll be greatly restricted on both the trade and free-agent markets. They'll no longer have a mid-level exception, which means they can only hand out minimum contracts to external free agents. They also can't aggregate contracts in trades, receive contracts back if they sign-and-trade their own free agents away, or trade first-round picks seven years in the future, among other restrictions.
If the Wolves go on a deep playoff run this year, perhaps new team owners Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore can justify the price of running this core back without making major changes. Towns' meniscus injury may rob them of their best chance to do so, though.
Towns underwent meniscus surgery in mid-March and is set to be re-evaluated in four weeks, which is right at the end of the regular season. If Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid is any indication, though, coming back on the early end of the typical 6-8 week timetable might be overly optimistic.
Regardless of how the postseason plays out, the Wolves will be facing some major financial decisions this summer. If they try to re-sign any of Monte Morris, Kyle Anderson or Jordan McLaughlin, it'll push them even further into apron territory. But if they flame out early, can they justify running back the same core considering how restricted they'll be in terms of getting external upgrades?
Every dollar is going to matter for the Timberwolves this summer, which brings us back to Edwards. The difference between the starting salary of a 25% max and a 30% max is roughly $7 million. There's a roughly $41 million difference between the two over the five-year span of the deals.
Edwards got selected to his second straight All-Star Game this year and is averaging a career-high 26.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.5 three-pointers for the 47-22 Timberwolves. He wasn't named to the All-NBA team last year, but this season is the first time in which players have to play at least 65 games to be eligible for it. That could wind up being to his benefit.
Four All-NBA players from last season—Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid, Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler, New York Knicks forward Julius Randle and Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell—have already missed at least 18 games this season and are not eligible for the All-NBA teams this year. Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker and Indianapolis Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton are in danger of joining them if they miss many more games.
Edwards is one of only 10 players this season averaging at least 25 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. That list includes two-time MVPs Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, MVP contender Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and four-time MVP LeBron James. Kyrie Irving—who's also ineligible for All-NBA because of games played—is the only member of that 10-player list other than Edwards who wouldn't be an All-NBA lock.
If the Timberwolves swoon in the absence of Towns over the final month of the season, that could drag down Edwards' All-NBA case in the eyes of some voters. But if Edwards keeps the Wolves afloat with heroic scoring efforts like he has in recent days, that could further bolster his case. Either way, these final few weeks have major implications for both him and the Timberwolves moving forward.
Having All-NBA nods tied to contract extensions puts the Timberwolves in the awkward position of wanting to support Edwards but not wanting him to make an All-NBA team for their roster-building purposes moving forward. They already could be forced to weigh whether to trade one of their core pieces this offseason. Having to pay Edwards an extra $7 million next season might only further force their hand.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.