Tom Krasovic: Falcons weren’t wrong to draft Michael Penix

By marching to a tune most folks couldn’t hear, the Atlanta Falcons shook up the NFL draft.

General manager Terry Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris shocked most of the football world by investing the eighth overall pick in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. just six weeks after guaranteeing $100 million to land veteran Kirk Cousins with a four-year contract.

Why pay for Cousins only to turn around and go large on another QB?

Why not take someone who can help Cousins try to take the team to a Super Bowl — like Laiatu Latu, the UCLA edge rusher who went 15th to the Colts?

How about receiver Rome Odunze, Penix’s favorite target with the Washington Huskies? The Bears took him one spot after the Penix selection left draft broadcasters sputtering.

Dumbfounded critics have since pointed out that by devoting so much salary-cap space to the two QBs the next four years, the Falcons won’t reap most of the coveted “Young QB Discount” whenever Penix succeeds Cousins.

If that wasn’t enough, the Falcons set themselves up for QB drama. Teammates will wonder if Morris will replace Cousins with Penix should the Falcons hit the skids. Media will obsess over the Kirk-or-Michael angles, annoying everyone.

Yet another critique asserts Penix should be starting, not sitting behind Cousins for two or three years. After all, he played in 49 games in college. Already 24, he’s older than many NFL players entering their second or third season. He’d benefit more from playing than sitting.

There’s truth to all of the critiques.

But they all come up short.

They don’t account fully for these twin challenges: the bleakness of not having a long-term answer at quarterback, and the reality that Cousins was signed to get a decent Falcons roster to the playoffs — but not necessarily to lead a Super Bowl run.

Soon to be 36 while coming off Achilles surgery, Cousins is fine quarterback but one who’s never taken a team beyond the divisional round. He owns just one playoff victory. One or two of his former teams were more talented than this year’s Falcons would be even with Latu or Odunze.

The Falcons have shouted their faith in Penix. They must believe they can turn him into an NFL starter who’s average or better.

There’s a cost to passing up such a player, and if it’s true the draft’s next QB class projects as mediocre, finding Cousins’ successor would be that much dicier. If an ongoing inquiry into tampering costs the Falcons future draft capital, moving up to draft a QB would become even tougher.

If the Falcons are right about Penix — and they may not have fallen in love with him until after their coaches were able to do a deep dive in the evaluation, by which time Cousins was signed — they are set at the sport’s most important position for the next several years.

They can pour all of their other available cap space and draft capital into other positions. Their offensive coaches can devise short- and long-term development plans, knowing Cousins and Penix will get most of the work.

It’s more art than science to project whether Penix would benefit more from playing than backing up Cousins.

Would Penix truly be better off playing this year behind Atlanta’s C+ line alongside an interesting but largely unproven group of pass-catchers and promising running back Bijan Robinson, all of whom will be learning under Zac Robinson, a first-year NFL coordinator who’s new to the team?

I’d guess Penix is better off learning from Cousins.

The rookie was the best downfield passer among the six QBs drafted in the first round, but he was the fourth QB selected. Against Michigan’s NFL-style defense in the national championship, he looked overmatched. Just one game out of 49? Not quite. The struggles were predicted by a San Diego prep football coach, meaning NFL teams saw what was coming, too.

The Wolverines, unlike most of Washington’s opponents, “placed a spotlight on” Penix’s limitations that included working the middle of the field with touch, navigating muddy pockets and winning with velocity, wrote Mt. Carmel High School defensive coach Diante Lee for The Athletic.

Lee predicted Penix’s specific struggles in his preview of the title game.

There’s almost always a San Diego angle in the NFL if you dig for it, and with the Falcons, it involves sons of two key figures with the San Diego Chargers.

Falcons offensive assistant Ken Zampese, the son of the late Ernie Zampese of “Air Coryell” renown, joined Morris’ staff this winter.

Falcons assistant GM Kyle Smith is the son of A.J. Smith, the late Chargers GM who in 2004 added rookie QB Philip Rivers to a Bolts roster that included Drew Brees, 24.

If Penix becomes what the Falcons expect him to become, they won’t regret taking him eighth. If Cousins leads this year’s team to the franchise’s first winning season in eight years, Penix can go to school on it. The young playmakers around Cousins will reap the windfalls of learning from a polished NFL starter who’s no worse than average.

The brutal task of escaping long-term QB Jail is bound to produce unorthodox attempts at solutions. Atlanta’s stunner was so unorthodox, almost none of the experts saw it coming.

tom.krasovic@

sduniontribune.com